A Spatio-Temporal Urban Growth Modelling. Case Study: Tehran Metropolis

Sassan MOHAMMADY1, Mahmoud Reza DELAVAR2
1 University of Tehran, College of Engineering, Department of Surveying and Geomatics Engineering, GIS Division, Tehran, IRAN
2 University of Tehran, College of Engineering, Department of Surveying and Geomatics Engineering, Centre of Excellence in Geomatics Engineering in Disaster Management, Tehran, IRAN
E-mail: Sassanmohammady@ut.ac.ir, mdelavar@ut.ac.ir
Pages: 9-17

Abstract. Different models have been attempted for modelling urban expansion. Models are tools for detecting changes and considering the relationship between land use and land use change factors . In this research we used the Logistic Regression method for modelling the urban expansion pattern in Tehran Metropolis during 1988-2010, employing landsat imageries acquired in 1988, 1999 and 2010. The effective parameters employed in this study include distance to principle roads, distance to developed region, distance to faults, distance to green space, elevation, slope and the number of urban pixels in a 3 by 3 neighbourhood. Percent Correct Match, Kappa statistics and Figure of Merit have been used for evaluating the accuracy of the model. We concluded that the distance to the residential area influences the urban development of Tehran greatly as compared to other factors. On the other hand, the number of urban pixels in a 3*3 neighbourhood had the lowest impact on urban development for this megacity in this period of time.

K e y w o r d s:  urban growth, modelling, logistic regression, GIS